Gator Bowl Preview

Location: EverBank Field Jacksonville FL
Time: New Year’s Day 1:30 EST
TV: ESPN 2
Line: Mississippi State -4.5
Weather: Sunny 75 with a few clouds


Michigan is back in a bowl game after a two year hiatus under Rich Rodriguez rebuilding of Michigan's Football program. The last time Michigan played in Florida was under similar circumstances when Michigan was an underdog against an SEC opponnet the Florida Gators lead by Tim Tebow, the Wolverines stepped up and sent Coach Carr out a winner in his last game.

Michigan will meet a ranked Mississippi State team tomorrow in the Gator Bowl. Both teams run the spread offenses and prefer the ground game over the pass any day. The Bulldogs have had a positive season under coach Dan Mullin who was rumored to be the leading candidate for the Florida job but didn’t even seem to get a sniff from the Florida AD. The Bulldogs are led by their dynamic spread QB Chris Relf who has been rumored to be more of a runner than a passer but in his last game against Mississippi he threw for 288 yards in a 31-23 win in the Egg Bowl.

During the year MSU won the games they should of and lost the games where they were out matched. With maybe one of their best performances coming in a 17-14 loss to Cam Newton and Auburn. MSU beat Memphis, Georgia, Alcorn State, Houston, Florida, UAB, Kentucky, and Mississippi. Loses were to Auburn, LSU, Alabama and Arkansas. The Florida win was a 10-7 score in the Swamp.

Gator Bowl Tale of the Tape:

Michigan Offense vs. MSU D= Advantage Michigan

Michigan D vs. MSU Offense = Advantage MSU

Special Teams = MSU and it isn’t close. They have a good kicker name Derek DePasquale who basically beat UAB with his leg and 4 field goals.

Intangibles = Michigan

MSU has a highly rated defense and has faced some good opponents this year like Auburn’s Cam Newton. They won’t back down to the “Denard factor” and it’s defense will plan to be fast and get an number of defenders to the ball. Though in week 2 when Auburn played MSU Cam Newton was trying to be Denard Robinson. Whoever runs the spread best will win this game. Michigan has a balanced attack between running and passing and an effective Denard throwing the ball will be key factor in the Wolverines success. MSU will keep a number of guys in the box and see if Denard can beat them with his arm. Denard’s accuracy and the ability for Michigan’s wide receivers to CATCH THE BALL will be important to keep drives alive.

Michigan will have the same strategy in trying to stop MSU’s offense. Michigan’s defense main problem this year has been stopping the run when they know the other team is going to run. I expect the defense has worked for two weeks on tackling and staying in their gaps. Will the senior linebackers Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton have their best games of their careers? They will need to for a Michigan win. I expect these two seniors will play early and often.


Sing Hail to the Victors if…………..

• Denard goes off for 250 in the air and 150 on the ground

• The Michigan defense is improved with two weeks of practice

• Rich Rod runs a more complicated spread

• Michigan never lines up for a field goal

• A Michigan RB goes for over a 100 yards

• The Michigan secondary fills holes in the running game and covers WR deep in the pass game.


Say I need a lot less F’ing Cow Bell if…………………….


• If MSU figures a way to stop Denard

• The Michigan defense can’t stop the run and gives up a number of big plays

• Michigan continues to turn the ball over and not get TO’s on defense

• MSU has an effective passing game

• Michigan is trying to kick field goals

I have a theory that Michigan plays well when they have more than two weeks to prepare for an opponent. Michigan under RR has played well in all 3 season openers with blow out wins over UConn and Western Michigan and a two point loss to a Utah team then went undefeated that year. Many experts expected UConn and Western to give Michigan problems and they didn’t. Michigan is 23-5-1 over the SEC and 7-3 in bowl games. Michigan also plays well when their coach is on the line. I expect the Wolverines to play inspired on both sides of the ball in support of Rich Rodriguez. I hope and expect them to come out prepared like they were for the UConn game and not dazed and confused like they were for the Penn State game.

I also believe this offense plays better in warm weather then they do in cold weather. The temperature at game time will be in the 70’s and the Florida boys will be excited to play in their home state in front of their friends and family. Vegas have the Bulldogs as a 4.5 favorite. I disagree. Michigan 42 Mississippi State 28

(I wrote this before the Foricer news broke, so if Denard goes down reverse the score and all bets are off)


Go Blue!

Michigan Thursday: Recuriting and The Wolverines Holiday Plans

There is a Jack Tabb recruiting update from Sam Webb at the Detroit News.  Rich Rod just did an in home with Jack last week:  "It was definitely good to have him here," Tabb said regarding the Wolverines' head man. "He stayed for a good long time. He talked again about how they need me and how they'd use me in their offense."  Jake and his mom visited Ann Arbor in November and really enjoyed their experience.   Jack was thinking about making a decision this week but is going to hold off until after the holidays.  If I had to guess it is because he wants to see what happens with RR job situation.

It's interesting to see RR and staff recruit TE's in this class.  When RR came to Michigan he really didn't use Tight Ends but with the talent Michigan had at that position he has found a nice place for them in his offense.  Let's hope Jack makes a decision to Go Blue in the new year.

• Breaking News: Is that Antonio Kinard a 2010 LB recruit who went to prep schools to get his grades up and a qualifying test score has qualified.   There is some question whether the Michigan coaches would give him 1 of the 7 remaining spots in the 2011 class but he is an athletic 6'4 210 pounds LB and Michigan sure does need those.  I expect Antonio is trying to contact the Michigan coaches right now to give them the good news.  If Michigan sures everything up with Antonio he plans to enroll at Michigan in a couple of weeks.  This is good news!

• Michigan Players are probably heading home for Christmas and will jump on the charter flight on the 26th to head down to Jacksonville.  Some of players will meet the Wolverines in Florida.  The Wolverines will be practicing at Jacksonville University during the week. 

• Alabama says there is nothing to see here - regarding the story about them putting thousands of dollars into Dr. Phillips field and locker room.    Ok, I get that but I'm pretty sure Ha'sean Clinton-Dix was quoted as saying he was going to take in an Alabama practice while they are at his school, which would be a recruiting violation.   So I guess the "gray area" is what happens if Ha'sean and Dee stop by and watch but weren't invited or they don't speak to anyone. 

• 2012 CB from Washington DC, Kenny Crawley has a Michigan offer.

• Jim's brother John (head coach of the Baltimore Ravens), thinks Jimmy is focused on the Orange Bowl, having a baby and wants to stay at Stanford. 

• Is Michigan's next coach on TV tonight?  I highly doubt it.  But Brady Hoke and his San Diego State squad takes the field/pool against Navy tonight.  The reason I say "pool" is because due to high rains in San Diego the field and parking lot are flooded.  They expect the game to go ahead as planned tonight.  

• This site thinks Tony Gibson is over paid at $231,000 a year since he coaches the special teams and the Michigan secondary.  Both units are ranked very low nationally.  I tell you one thing, the guy can recruit!

• Darian Cooper, DT will wait to see what happens before he seriously considers Michigan or dropping them from his list.

• Michigan Basketball plays Bryant tonight on the BTN at 6:00.  This win will increase the Wolverines record to 10-2 with it's only two loses coming in a bad weekend in New Jersey.   This will be the last game before the Wolverines start their Big Ten season.  When the holidays are behind us, please go to the games and support this young exciting team.

I really don't want to touch the Ohio State Tattoo thing.  It seems Kansas State basketball was caught with something similar.  These things happen at all big time programs.  It really does.  So take it for what it's worth.  On a side note, stretching and having QC staffers coach is a worth 3 years of probation.  As they say on ESPN's NFL Countdown:  Come On, Man!

I also don't want to touch the Rex Ryan feet thing but there aren't any truth to the reports/rumors that he is interested in signing former Michigan linebacker Larry Foote.

Wolverine Wednesday: Answers your Burning Questions about Michigan Football

Q:  Many Michigan fans are concerned about Alabama practicing for the Citrus Bowl at Dr. Phillips High School which also happens to be Dee Hart's school.  What kind of contact can Saban and Alabama have with Dee during the quiet period? 

A: None.  If any Alabama players or coaches have contact with Dee or Ha'sean Clinton-Dix during this time, those players will be ineligible at Alabama.  If they go to a Bowl Game (Gator or Capital One) they will have to buy a ticket and can't be hosted by any University.  The NCAA Bylaw is 13.02.4.3  .  The news about Alabama upgrading Dr. Phillips football fields, locker rooms, etc are pretty bush league in my opinion.  Saban and Alabama seem to play by their own rules;  if its finding unique ways to pay a high school or signing a class of 30 kids each year and taking scholarships away from other kids on the team.

Q: What does your gut say about Rich Rod and his future at Michigan?

A: All insider information says that coaches are looking for new jobs and that RR and staff are most likely out.  I don't feel that way.  If David Brandon has a deal in place with Jim Harbaugh it is the most "inside" job ever.  Things like new jobs, contracts at a big time programs are never kept quiet, someone always leaks something.  RR and staff are recruiting hard and telling kids that they expect to be back.  Michigan just landed a Army All American DB and there seems to be more commits coming in early January.   I right now expect Rich Rod and staff to be back.   The upside on offense next year is huge and Michigan just needs to get the defense up to say "average".  

Q: Speaking of recruiting how do you think this class will end up?

A: I will assume 2 things.  #1 RR stays as head coach and #2 Michigan doesn't lose any commits from the current verbals  (It's pretty well known that if RR is gone, so is Dee Hart).  Michigan has 13 verbals right now:  3 DE's, 2 OL's, 1 RB. 1 Slot WR, 2 LB's, 4 DB's.   That should leave 7 spots open in this class.  Michigan needs 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 Safety, 1 WR, 2 DT's, 1 RB, and 1 Kicker. (yes, I realize that is 8 spots of need)  I think the biggest question marks in this class are at QB, DT and Kicker.   I think Michigan looks good for Anthony Zettel, Kris Frost, Thomas Rawls, Raymon Taylor, and Chris Bryant.  I think Michigan has a good shot at landing one TE and a high profile DB like Wayne Lyons.   I don't think Michigan has big enough pool of recruits right now at defensive tackle, kicker, or QB.  It is really going to be difficult to find a QB that wants to sit behind redshirt freshman Devin Gardner and two high profile Juniors.  Michigan of course would also take a WR like Devin Lucien and one TE between Jack Tabb and Frank Clark.

Q: Don't give me your highly anticipated Gator Bowl preview yet but give us a couple of nuggets to consider as we set up toys and put together bikes?

A: Here is something I have been thinking about.  RR and staff seem to do well when they have more then a couple of weeks to prepare for a game.  Michigan's most complete game of the year was their 1st game of the year against UConn.  They only gave up 10 points on defense.  In RR's first year, Michigan played a pretty sloppy game but only lost to Utah (who ended up going un-defeated that year) by 2 points. 

Did you realize this is RR's 4th trip to the Gator Bowl as a head coach? He is actually only 1-3 in Gator Bowl games.  The good news is RR has won his last 3 bowl games (if you include the Fiesta Bowl when he left for Michigan). His teams bowl record is 3-3 (which includes the Fiesta Bowl).   Let's hope his winning bowl streak continues. 

Q: Can the Defense improve since the Ohio State game?

A: Yes, it can and I expect to see improvements in WR coverage by the young DB's and overall tackling.  The way bowl practice is set up: you get 15 practices and basically you work on fundamentals while in Ann Arbor and then work on game plan for Mississippi State while in Jacksonville.   These two weeks really help the young kids and look for the real benefits to show up next year with guys like Jake Ryan, Richard Ash and Josh Furman.

Q: Ok, do you expect the defense will be better next year and why?

A:  Yes, I do expect big improvements in the defense next year. The freshman DB's that played this year will have a full year of experience.  Mike Martin will be a pre-season All American candidate.  Michigan will get back a 5th year senior DB Troy Woolfolk to stabilize that area.

I'm also hoping for big improvements from young players on the defensive line like Richard Ash (who is over 300 lbs.) and Q Washington (who is now officially a defensive tackle).   The linebacker play should be better with an experienced Kenny Demens.

Q:  I assume your in some type of Bowl Picking Pool.  How do you have the Big Ten doing?

A: Yes, I am.  Just for fun of course.  Never for money.  Winning I have: Iowa, Nebraska, and Ohio State.  Losing I have: Northwestern, Penn State, and Michigan State.  (You will have to wait for the Gator Bowl Preview on my Michigan pick! :)

Michigan Monday: Michigan vs Mississippi State

Is that enough "M's" for you in one title?  Yes, the Wolverines got a favorable bowl last night as they accepted an invitation to play in the Gator Bowl on New Years Day.  I know NYD isn't what it used to be but after two years of not watching the Wolverines at all during the holidays, I think the Gator Bowl was a nice choice for the Wolverines.

Mississippi State was some what of a surprise as an opponent for the Wolverines.  Most expected a Michigan - Florida match up but the Outback Bowl decided they rather snatch up the Gators.   Then the rumor floating around was Tennessee but that didn't happen either and now the Wolverines face a top 30 defense in Dan Mullen's Mississippi State squad. 

Even though Michigan State didn't get a BCS Bid they are playing a very difficult Alabama team in what should be re-named as the Saban Bowl.   Iowa seemed to get the short end of the stick having to play Missouri a 10-2 Big 12 Team on December 28.   I don't think MSU has the talent to say to Bama but I think Iowa can beat Missouri. 



More News and Notes From This Weekend:

• Change of Hart?  Too bad to see Mike Hart limp off the field on Sunday with another ankle injury but it seems Dee Hart might be re-thinking his de-commit to Michigan.  Rod Smith was reportedly down in Orlando on Friday to talk with Dee and watch his game.   It seems Rod got him off the ledge a bit but Dee still has some decisions to make, like enrolling early or not and if Michigan stays with RR long term.  Let's hope he stays Maize and Blue.  I'm thinking he probably wants to do the "hat thing" at the Army All American Game.  Michigan needs players like this young man.

• Kevin Sousa - Has de-committed from the Wolverines and verbally committed to Wake Forest.  Kevin is a young QB that "needed some work" to play at Michigan and probably saw a depth chart that listed guys like Denard, Tate, and Devin.  Which didn't really equal early or even late playing time.  So he decided to go a different direction, which seems to make a lot of sense for him.  Good Luck Kevin!

• Tommy Two Times?  Not on Saturday.  Michigan beat Tommy Amaker's solid Harvard team with some clutch second half shooting by Stu Douglass.  Tommy beat the Wolverines a couple of years ago when they traveled to Harvard.

• Kill The Gophers?  This line reminds me more of Caddy Shack then Big Ten Football but it seems the Minnesota Golden Gophers have hired Jerry Kill of Northern Illinois as their next head coach.  Jerry is also the former Saginaw Valley State head man and his team just lost to Miami (OH) in Ford Field over the weekend in the MAC Championship Game.

• TomVH from Mgoblog reports: That 4 star WR Devin Lucien will visit Ann Arbor on January 7th.

• Looks like Jim Harbaugh is about to sign an extentsion at Stanford.   Is there a Michigan clause?

Big Ten Preview Week 12

With the holiday on Thursday, I know your week wouldn't be the same without my Big Ten weekend preview.  So I will bring it to you a day early and you now can rest easy on Thursday and enjoy your Turkey.


Big Ten Game of the Week:

Michigan State at Penn State:  Michigan State fans this week have become Wolverine fans for just one week.  They want Michigan to upset the Buckeyes so they can go to the Rose Bowl.   Which is funny on a number of levels: #1 Michigan State almost lost to Purdue last week #2 Ohio State is a 17 point favorite  #3 MSU hasn't played well on the road after their victory in Ann Arbor.   Sparty take care of business on Saturday and then see what happens.  I would actually like to see the Sabin Bowl 2 in the Capital One Bowl on New Years Day:  Alabama vs MSU rather then watching State get blown out in the Rose Bowl by TCU or Stanford. 

JoPa announced last night he is not ready to move to Florida and is coming back for another year.   Which will get the Penn State fans pumped up.  Beaver Stadium will be full of fans wanting nothing more then to ruin Spartys co-Big Ten Championships hopes in Happy Valley.   BTW:  This rivalry that the Big Ten forced on us, never did play out.   Penn State started to find it feet before they started throwing "picks" in the second half against Ohio State.  MSU on the other hand has struggled to win games against lesser opponents.   JoPa is a two point dog at home.  It wouldn't be that close.  Penn State 28 MSU 14


Indiana at Purdue:  Wow, this is not a good game.  IU hasn't had a Big Ten win this year and Purdue even though playing well last week in East Lansing is on a 5 game losing streak.   I know this is one of the rivalries that the Big Ten wanted to protect, are they sure they want to do that?  Purdue is favored by 3 at home.   This game has a coach with a mustache vs a coach that throws his gum. Stache wins Purdue 17 IU 10

Iowa at Minnesota:  Iowa has had a disappointing year.  The schedule set up for them, they won their toughest conference road game in Ann Arbor and still will end up 8-4 this year.   Iowa clearly had a chance to run the table in the Big Ten and didn't.  Minnesota on the other had also had a chance to run the table in the Big Ten but they beat Illinois two weeks ago.  The Golden Gophers just want the season to end so they can continue their coaching search.  The Hawkeyes just want to book their travel to the Outback Bowl.   Iowa is a 14.5 favorite.  Iowa 42 Minnesota 10

Northwestern at Wisconsin:  This would be a game if Northwestern had their QB.  They don't so it won't.  I'm guessing the Badgers start off slow in this game as they start thinking at the Rose Bowl but pull away for a the comfortable win in the second half.  Wisky is favored by 23 points.  Wisconsin 41 Northwestern 28

 Illinois is off this week and travels to Fresno State next week. 

I will preview the game in Columbus on Friday.

Michigan Tuesday: Recruiting Updates for Football and Basketball

Wisconsin's best running back might not be ready to play this weekend:  “Clay is still yet to be determined,” UW coach Bret Bielema said at his Monday news conference. “I haven’t seen him today but yesterday, he was moving as good as he has (since getting hurt against Purdue). I don’t know if we’ll have him for Tuesday, but we do expect him to get a limited amount of work this week.”

Recruiting Update:

• A name I haven't heard of regarding Michigan is: QB Tanner McEvoy (6-6, 205) of Oradell, N.J.  He is considering a visit to Ann Arbor.  As a senior, he has over 1,600 passing yards and 19 touchdowns and has rushed for another 700 yards and 10 scores.

• DE Ray Drew will shorten his list of 30+ offers to 5 this week or next.

• Basketball Recruiting news:  Amir Williams has dropped the Wolverines from his list and will announce between Ohio State and Florida next week. 

• Michigan has offered Glenbard West junior defensive tackle Tommy Schutt for the 2012 class

• Recent Michigan visitor Marquise Williams is still with UNC: "My commitment is still firm," he said. "I just went to N.C. State to see how it was. I'm just weighing things out. I'm not really having second thoughts."
  

• Carlton Brundidge will sign his LOI for Michigan Basketball today at 11:00.  

• Instate LB Desmond Morgan visited Northwestern this weekend and was offered by the Wildcats.  Desmond's stock is very much on the rise.

Former Michigan coach finding success at Syracuse:  Coordinator Scott Shafer — who already was earning a reputation as a guru in previous stops at Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Stanford and Michigan — has added to it with his SU group, which has been led by linebackers Derrell Smith and Doug Hogue. SU is ninth in the nation in total defense (297.10 yards per game), 32nd in rushing defense (128.8), 11th in pass defense (168.3), 16th in pass-efficiency defense (110.72), and 13th in scoring defense (17.8).  Tyrone Wheatley is also on this staff.

Gator Bowl wants teams on a roll:  "We like to get teams that finish well and have gotten their fan base excited," Gator Bowl president Rick Catlett said Monday. "We think we have enough teams under consideration to have a good chance of that."

Michigan Monday: Looks for It's Bowling Shoes

I'm glad that is out of the way. 

After two years of staying home for the holidays and no Bowl gear in Big House Bob's stocking, Michigan will be heading to a bowl game.  If you want to be negative, there is still plenty to be negative about like:  bowl games should not be the goal of the season - championships should be, 65 points? are you kidding me,  and 3 years of probation is 3 years longer then Bo ever had. I know and understand it, but I would much rather enjoy this win, ponder who we might play, and think about how 15 more practices that will advance this young team. 

Pete from AnnArbor.com beat me to this but here is where some of the experts believe Michigan will end up:

CBS Sports.com says:  Insight Bowl against Oklahoma.  Really Oklahoma?  I doubt it.

Rivals: Texas Bowl against Texas.  Would love it!  Rather have the game in Florida then Texas. 

ESPN Big10 Blog: says Dallas Football Classic. January 1 Bowl in the Cotton Bowl.  First Annual.

College Football News.com: Says Texas Bowl vs Baylor. 

I would rather have Michigan playing in Florida but being in the first Dallas Football Classic on January 1 would be pretty cool as well.   Michigan will be highly regarded and selected for any Bowl since they are a Big Name that travels well. 


Can a Defense Play Better and still give up 65 points?  The answer is Yes.  Stay with me.  Michigan turned the ball over 5 times and it seemed there were improvements and some good plays by some young players.  I thought Courtney Avery played much better, he had a couple of good tackles and was right with the WR on the long touchdown pass.  Ray Vinopal had a huge tackle on 3rd down, Cam Gordon was always around the football, Kenny Demens made a play on pass break up and seemed to attack the running plays, it's 100% clear Roh is a better DE then LB and was a regular in the backfield, and Mouton made the last play of the game by getting by the RB trying to block him.   Sure there were 100 mistakes as well, but this is a positive post today, remember! 


DeAnthony Arnett:  For those that don't know, Arnett is a 4 star highly rated instate WR in the 2011 class.  He has been listing a number of schools including MSU, Tenn, USC, and others.  Reportedly, he was somewhat down on the Wolverines becuase they don't pass enough and he wouldn't get enough looks in RR's offense.  DeAnthony was a visitor for the Michigan game on Saturday.  Do you think he changed his mind after the days Roundtree and Hemingway had?  He could be planning an announcement this week.  Could he be Blue?  He might.  He visited USC the weekend before. 

Question from a Big House Reader:  Ricky Asks:  Would this defense been different had Donovan Warren not declared for the NFL draft and Troy Woolfolk didn't suffered a season ending injury. Do you think they could've at least help us get 1 or 2 more wins?

Also, am I crazy or is it the case that the Michigan offense is more prolific with Tate Forcier as QB?

Let me answer the first question first.  The answer is Yes.  Having two senior CB's in the secondary could have made a huge difference in Michigan's wins total this year.  All of Michigan losses could have been wins, when you have two healthy seniors at each corner, Michigan could have done some other things to protect the defensive line and linebacker play to stop the run.  Sure, Michigan would still have issues at safety and LB, but this team would easily be in the top 25 with those guys in the lineup.  The MSU game would have been different and the Penn State experiment that went way wrong would have never happened.   So let's say, Michigan takes 1 out of 2 from either MSU and/or Iowa and beats Penn State.

To your second question.  The answer is yes and no.  Michigan is much more dynamic and hard to plan for if Denard is the QB.  His run/pass option is a defensive coordinators nightmare.  The safeties, CB, and LB's don't know if they should chase Denard or cover the Michigan WR's.   That type of indecision can cause long runs or open WR's.  As you can tell, Michigan's opponents are trying to take away the run and have Denard beat them with his arm. 

So why is Tate a better option?  If Michigan gets down by more then two touchdowns, I believe Tate is the better option.  Michigan's offense is built to be in the lead or near the lead.   If Michigan turns the ball over and gets down by say 17 points, Tate is the better option for a comeback.  His passing skills (all though his reads are sometimes too risky) are a couple levels above Denard's and he has more experience reading defenses.  When Tate is in the game the defense adjusts to play more pass, which opens up running lanes for him or the RB's.  As you could tell on Saturday, he made a couple of good first downs with his feet. 

I would like to see Tate throw the shorter pass to the tight end or the WR.  He sometimes looks for the bigger play/TD instead of getting the first down. 

Great Question!  Thank you.